Texas Physician Supply and Demand Projections, 2022-2036

Per Section 105.009 of the Texas Health and Safety Code, the Health Professions Resource Center at the Texas Department of State Health Services must conduct research:

• To identify all medical specialties and subspecialties that are at critical shortage levels in this state, together with the location of the physicians in those specialties and subspecialties; and
• Regarding the overall supply of physicians in Texas and any other issues relevant to the status of the state’s graduate medical education system and its ability to meet current and future health care needs.

Supply and demand projections were generated using the GlobalData (formerly IHS Markit) Health Workforce Microsimulation Model. Some factors to keep in mind when reading the report are:

• Supply for services represents the number of physicians licensed to provide health care services in Texas. Supply is modeled using:
  • Physician licensure data from the Texas Medical Board, and
  • Information from reliable national databases
• Demand represents the number of full-time providers required to meet demand for services. Demand for services is modeled using:
  • Population characteristics,
  • Economic variables,
  • Historic and current healthcare utilization patterns, and
  • Need for services based on the prevalence of disease and other health factors.
• Changes in any of the metrics used in the model will change the supply and demand projections.
• Projections are increasingly uncertain for years farther from the baseline 2022 data.
• The model does not consider certain factors that impact access to health care, especially in regions with higher shortage levels. Factors not considered in the model include proximity to services, wait times, and drive times.

The Texas Physician Supply and Demand Projections 2022 – 2036 Report* is an update to the 2020 report that included physician supply and demand projections for 2018 – 2032. The 2022 report assessed medical education graduates by specialty for 2021 through 2032, with a primary focus on primary care physicians and psychiatrists. The 2022 report used a tool called the Texas Physician Pipeline Model, which was developed by IHS Markit and assessed the impact of changes in undergraduate and graduate medical education spaces in Texas.

*To access the report, click on the link and navigate to Physicians.